IDC: 8 Stats Why the Post-PC, Mobile Era Is Upon Us

Eric Lai | Mar 16, 2011

Big market researchers are rarely at the forefront of tech trends, as they must balance the viewpoints of startups, established vendors and enterprise IT buyers.

What firms like Gartner and IDC excel at is being a belwether for emerging trends, and providing empirical validation for them.

At its Directions 2011 conference in San Jose today, IDC Corp. analysts argued that we are entering the post-PC era of computing overflowing with data, devices and apps.

Ironically, this is a drum that SAP has been banging loudly for the past year. And gratifyingly, it is nearly identical to the Unwired Enterprise vision that Sybase has promoted since the middle of the last decade (see this whitepaper, which I had a hand in, summarizing this vision).

Here are some of the stats IDC shared, along with the implications.

1. Stat: It is 25 years (1986) since the industry began moving en masse towards client/server away from mainframes.

Implication: We are at similar transition from PC-server towards mobile devices. Already, there are “trillions of smart ‘things’ (sensors, devices, etc.), billions of users, millions of apps,” says Frank Gens, chief analyst for IDC.

2. Stat: 3 of the biggest companies that failed to transition to client-server were Cullinet (database maker that avoided new retailing model), Wang (word processor maker that chose CPU ignored by software developers) and Digital (overvalued by Wall Street).

Implication: Companies that made right moves made the leap: Dell (sold PCs by phone), EMC (took regular hard disks into the enterprise) and SAP (brought ERP from mainframe to client-server).

3. Stat: 80% of new enterprise apps to be distributed via the cloud. By 2014, 30% of enterprise application spending will be on the cloud.

Implication: Even enterprise apps will follow Apple’s App Store model, argues Gens.

4. Stat: There are 1.3 million mobile apps today, versus 50,000 to 75,000 PC applications, says Gens.

Implication: Most new apps will be vertical or industry-specific solutions.

5. Stat: 1.8 Zettabytes (1.8 billion TERABYTES) of data will be stored in 2011, up 47% year-over-year. That will grow to 7 Zettabytes in 2014.

Implication: “This is about BIG data,” says Gens, not relational databases. “This BREAKS traditional databases.”

6. Stat: 500 million smartphones and tablets to sell in 2011, versus 380 million PCs.

Implication: This is the transition year in which devices will pass PCs permanently.

7. Stat: Only 50% of smartphones and 20% of tablets in enterprise bought by IT, according to fall 2010 IDC survey.

Implication: Bring Your Own Device is huge, says IDC analyst Bob O’Donnell, and managers will need to account for that.

8. Stat: Worldwide, the average affluent consumer owns 4.8 devices, according to a recent IDC survey. In the US, that is up to 6.6 devices.

Implication: The market is hugely fragmented.

View Original Article: B2C

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HTML5 experience is subpar when compared to apps: CTIA panelist

By Rimma Kats

March 22, 2011

Discovery iPad app

ORLANDO, FL – The mobile apps versus Web debate took center stage during a panel at International CTIA Wireless 2011's Mobile Marketing & Promotion pre-conference program.

During the “Mobile Applications – The Rumors of Death are Highly Exaggerated” session, speakers talked about the new ideas driving mobile interaction and providing additional consumer touch points for agencies and brands through specially developed applications. The panel was moderated by Steve Spencer, president of Cayuga Service, New York.

“I don’t think apps are dying,” said Michael Schneider, CEO of Mobile Roadie, Los Angeles. “I think they need a reason to exist and right now a user experience on native apps is high and on HTML5 it’s low.

“A lot of people are looking for a direct revenue from apps,” he said. “I don’t know if all the mechanisms are there.”

According to Sean Rosenberg, managing director Grapple Mobile USA, New York, some applications are dying quickly.

“Location is a defining factor,” Mr. Rosenberg said. “Why make something that is customizable for a mobile device?

“If you’re seeing high repeat usage of mobile, segment that,” he said. “For publishers, there’s eyeballs to be had – there’s media to be created through these apps and sold.

“To increase the number of transactions and increase customer base – that’s where we see a lot of power.”

Android vs. iPhone
According to the panelists, companies that want to break into the mobile space should look at starting on Apple and Google operating systems.

“We started on Apple,” Mr. Schneider said. “I still think it’s the best platform to start.

“Android is catching up quickly,” he said. “In the next year, there are going to be three leaders – there’s going to be iPhone, Android and really, I don’t know what else.

“In general the iPhone and Android provide ease of use for companies looking to develop an application.”

Between iPhone and Android devices, Google has not figure out the payment mechanism of that, per Ted Shelton, CEO of Open-First, Milwaukee, WI.

“Apple has,” Mr. Shelton said. “Apple gets people to pay for apps.

“There are going to be millions of apps and people are only going to use a few,” he said.

Consumer experiences
According to Mr. Shelton, consumers want apps because they want a different experience than the mobile Web.

However, not every brand is using applications to their advantage.

Mr. Shelton said that companies should incorporate location-based services into their mobile marketing initiatives.

“If you look at mobile as an opportunity to rethink the work flow, use those location-based services,” Mr. Shelton said. “There’s an accelerometer on your device, you can use that.

“You can ask consumers if they are satisfied or not with the application by shaking their device,” he said. “You can get real-time feedback.”

Additionally, Mr. Shelton said that with mobile applications, comes mobile advertising.

However, advertising is in a long decline, per the executive.

“Advertising is fundamentally one way,” Mr. Shelton said. “Consumers would rather interact and once they interact they want to have an interesting dialogue.

“Ever since Apple introduced in-app purchases, it has creating a more compelling experience,” he said. “You will see Angry Birds get a seven-figure deal with in-app purchases.

“It won’t be an ad - it’ll be product placements and lead to a click rate.”

Ari Tiktin, director of Discovery Communications, Silver Spring, MD, said that the company mainly uses free and ad-supported applications.

Discovery sells mobile as a larger digital package.

“What’s different for us is where do you spend your money,” Mr. Tiktin said. “How do you get your app discovered?

“We try to put all of the stops,” he said. “We have great social media reach across all our shows.

“We do just whatever we can to promote our apps.”

Across platforms
According to the speakers, companies should make sure that their applications are available across key smartphone platforms.

For example, a consumers who is thinking of buying a Windows Phone 7 device, but finds out that Angry Birds is only available on iPhone and Android devices, will lose interest in Windows Phone 7.

Companies should make sure that they are on all devices to keep the user engagement and reach high.

“I think apps create the best experiences today,” said Mark Hyland, vice president of QuickPlay Media, Toronto, ON. “To a certain extent, an app can take better advantage of that hardware.

“Apps can normalize an experience across multiple devices,” he said. “Ads will work for apps with large scale usage.

“If people are going to use it everyday, then an app is definitely the way to go.”

View Original Article: Mobile Marketer